New Orleans of the Middle East
American families stuck in Lebanon are resorting to signs, much as stranded NOLA residents did after Katrina. Meanwhile, Israel took out the Beirut airport several days ago, and has now taken out the bridges that connect southern Lebanon to Beirut, where US evacuation plans depart from. According to MI Senator Stabenow and Congressman Conyers, there are between 5,000 and 7,000 Michiganders stranded in southern Lebanon. There are up to 25,000 Americans from all states still in Lebanon. And the infrastructure to get them out has been destroyed.
We’ll see some staged photo ops from the 150 Americans who just landed in Baltimore–or from the 1000 who have arrived in Cyprus.
Meanwhile, we’ve got Marines in Lebanon–yes, you heard me right, Marines in Lebanon–to help with the evacuation. We all knew Bush aspired to copy Reagan’s foreign policy approach. Which makes me curious whether DOD has taken over the evacuation from State, or whether State finally admitted cruise ships just weren’t going to hack it anymore. I do know we tried to avoid bringing military ships close to Lebanon, for fear of the military image it’d present. Now we’ve got Marines in the country. Don’t get me wrong–to some degree I’m reassured that Read more →
The First Fourth Generation World War
Steve Soto posts an email exchange with Sam Gardiner that strongly supports a point I’ve been making.
A major piece of what I was being told was shocking. Iranand Syria were involved in the planning for the hostage takings. I waseven told where and when their planning meeting took place. Anindividual with former connections to the CIA told me the currentsituation is all is about the Iranian nuclear program. I was skepticalof that explanation until I heard Zal Khalilzad, the US Ambassador toIraq, on CNN late in the day. He said, "It is about the Iranian nuclearprogram."Â
In other words, Iran did not wait for the US preemptive strike. It conducted its own.
To understand why I think Iran actually gains by this, I need to make clear how I suspect Iran’s leaders calculated their risk and reward. Many have assumed that Iran’s cost-benefit analysis weighed status quo in the Middle East and the prospect of a deal at the UN, versus implication in a regional war with Israel. If the Iranians had believed this to be the case, they would never have intervened in this confrontation (and understand, I am convinced they pre-empted an Egyptian cease fire; other claims are tough to measure because of the politics involved). I strongly suspect the Iranian cost-benefit analysis weighed certain war against the US on the US’ terms versus war not on the US’ terms.